Google Scholar

Working Papers
  1. C Heinrich, K H Hellton, A Lenkoski and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Postprocessing seasonal weather forecasts
    arXiv:1907.09716, 2019 [arxiv]
  2. F Krürger, S Lerch, T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting
    Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output
    arXiv:1608.06802, 2019 [bib | arxiv]
  3. T Erhardt, C Czado and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Evaluation of time series models under non-stationarity with application to the comparison of regional climate models
    arXiv:1702.00728, 2017 [arxiv]
  4. A Möller, T L Thorarinsdottir, A Lenkoski and T Gneiting
    Spatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts
    arXiv:1507.05066, 2015 [bib | arxiv]
  5. T Gneiting and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Predicting inflation: professional experts versus no-change forecasts
    arXiv:1010.2318, 2010 [bib | arxiv]
Journal Articles
  1. M Jullum, T L Thorarinsdottir and F E Bachl
    Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 69(2): 327-352, 2020 [http | arxiv]
  2. O Haug, T L Thorarinsdottir, S H Soerbye and C L E Franzke
    Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales
    Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6: 1-12, 2020 [http | arxiv]
  3. N Schuhen, T L Thorarinsdottir and A Lenkoski
    Rapid adjustment and post-processing of temperature forecast trajectories
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146: 963-978, 2020 [http | arxiv]
  4. Q Yuan, T L Thorarinsdottir, S Beldring, W K Wong, S Huang and C-Y Xu
    New approach for bias correction and stochastic downscaling of future projections for daily mean temperatures to a high-resolution grid
    Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58: 2617-2632, 2019 [http | arxiv]
  5. T L Thorarinsdottir, K H Hellton, G H Steinbakk, L Schlichting and K Engeland
    Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for large catchments
    Water Resources Research, 54(9): 6929-6947, 2018 [http]
  6. P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir
    How to save Bergen from the sea? Decisions under uncertainty
    Significance, 15(2): 14-18, 2018 [pdf]
  7. F Kobierska, K Engeland and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Evaluation of design flood estimates -- a case study for Norway
    Hydrology Research, 49(2): 450-465, 2017 [preprint | http]
  8. J Sillmann, T Thorarinsdottir, N Keenlyside, N Schaller, L V Alexander, G Hegerl, S I Seneviratne, R Vautard, X Zhang and F W Zwiers
    Understanding, modeling and predictig weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities
    Weather and Climate Extremes, 18: 65-74, 2017 [pdf | http]
  9. T L Thorarinsdottir, P Guttorp, M Drews, P Skougaard Kaspersen and K de Bruin
    Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty
    Water Resources Research, 53(10): 8147-8163, 2017 [tech | http]
  10. R Benestad, J Sillmann, T L Thorarinsdottir, P Guttorp, M d S Mesquita, M R Tye, P Uotila, C Fox Maule, P Thejll, M Drews and K M Parding
    New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue
    Nature Climate Change, 7: 697-703, 2017 [http]
  11. S Lerch, T L Thorarinsdottir, F Ravazzolo and T Gneiting
    Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation
    Statistical Science, 32(1): 106-127, 2017 [bib | arxiv | http]
  12. G H Steinbakk, T L Thorarinsdottir, T Reitan, L Schlichting, S Hølleland and K Engeland
    Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation
    Water Resources Research, 52(9): 6897-6915, 2016 [bib | tech | http]
  13. T L Thorarinsdottir, M Scheuerer and C Heinz
    Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms
    Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1): 105-122, 2016 [bib | arxiv | http]
  14. E-M Didden, T L Thorarinsdottir, A Lenkoski and C Schnörr
    Shape from texture using locally scaled point processes
    Image Analysis & Stereology, 34: 161-170, 2015 [bib | arxiv | pdf]
  15. F E Bachl, A Lenkoski, T L Thorarinsdottir and C Garbe
    Bayesian motion detection for dust areosols
    Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(3): 1298-1327, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http]
  16. L V Hansen, T L Thorarinsdottir, E Ovcharov, T Gneiting and D Richards
    Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension
    Advances in Applied Probability, 47(2): 307-327, 2015 [bib | tech | arxiv | http]
  17. A V Dyrrdal, A Lenkoski, T L Thorarinsdottir and F Stordal
    Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme hourly precipitation in Norway
    Environmetrics, 26(2): 89-106, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http]
  18. K Feldmann, M Scheuerer and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression
    Monthly Weather Review, 143(3): 955-971, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http]
  19. K Willett, C Williams, I Jolliffe, R Lund, L Alexander, S Brönniman, L A Vincent, S Easterbrook, V Venema, D Berry, R Warren, G Lopardo, R Auchmann, E Aguilar, M Menne, C Gallagher, Z Hausfather, T Thorarinsdottir and P W Thorne
    A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale
    Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions, 3: 187-200, 2014 [pdf]
  20. T L Thorarinsdottir, T Gneiting and N Gissibl
    Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models
    SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 1(1): 522-534, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv]
  21. R Schefzik, T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting
    Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling
    Statistical Science, 28(4): 616-640, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv]
  22. S Lerch and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Comparing nonhomogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting
    Tellus A, 65: 21206, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv]
  23. T L Thorarinsdottir
    Calibration diagnostics for point process models via the probability integral transform
    Stat 2(1): 150-158, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv]
  24. A Möller, A Lenkoski, and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139(673): 982-991, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv]
  25. L V Hansen and T L Thorarinsdottir
    A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields
    Statistics and Probability Letters, 83(3): 850-855, 2013 [bib | http | tech]
  26. T L Thorarinsdottir, M Scheuerer, and K Feldmann
    Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts
    Promet, 37(3/4):43-52, 2012 (in German, invited paper) [bib | pdf]
  27. P Friederichs and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction
    Environmetrics, 23(7):579-594, 2012 [bib | http | arxiv]
  28. N Schuhen, T L Thorarinsdottir, and T Gneiting
    Ensemble model output statistics for wind vectors
    Monthly Weather Review, 140(10):3204-3219, 2012 [bib | http | arxiv]
  29. P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir
    What happened to discrete chaos, the Quenouille process, and the sharp Markov property? Some history of stochastic point processes
    International Statistical Review, 80(2):253-268, 2012 [bib | http | tech]
  30. T L Thorarinsdottir and M S Johnson
    Probabilistic wind gust forecasting using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression
    Monthly Weather Review, 140(3):889-897, 2012 [bib | http]
  31. T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting
    Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: Ensemble model output statistics by using heteroskedastic censored regression
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 173(2):371-388, 2010 [bib | http | tech]
  32. E B V Jensen and T L Thorarinsdottir
    A spatio-temporal model for functional magnetic resonance imaging data - with a view to resting state networks
    Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 34(3):587-614, 2007 [bib | http | tech]
  33. M H Neumann and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Asymptotic minimax estimation in nonparametric autoregression
    Mathematical Methods of Statistics, 15(4):374-397, 2007 [bib | pdf]
  34. T L Thorarinsdottir
    Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
    Image Analysis & Stereology, 25:129-143, 2006 [bib | pdf]
Book Chapters
  1. T L Thorarinsdottir and N Schuhen
    Chapter 6 - Verification: assessment of calibration and accuracy
    In S Vannitsem, D S Wilks and J W Messner (Eds.), Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts, pp. 155-186. Elsevier, 2018. [tech | http]
  2. P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Bayesian inference for non-Markovian point processes
    In E Porcu, J M Montero, and M Schlather (Eds.), Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events, pp. 79-102. Lecture Notes in Statistics, Volume 207. Springer: Berlin Heidelberg, 2012 [bib | http | tech]
  1. T L Thorarinsdottir and E B V Jensen
    Modelling resting state networks in the human brain
    In R Lechnerová, I Saxl, and V Beneš, editors, Proceedings S4G: International Conference on Stereology, Spatial Statistics and Stochastic Geometry, pp. 137-147, 2006 [bib | pdf]
  1. A Lenkoski and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Comments on: Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings by W Ehm, T Gneiting, A Jordan and F Krüger
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 78(3): 548, 2016 [http]
  2. T L Thorarinsdottir and A Løland
    Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch by X Zhu, M G Genton, Y Gu and L Xie
    TEST, 23(1): 32-33, 2014 [bib | http]
Project and Meeting Reports
  1. P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir
    Local climate projections: A little money goes a long way
    Eos, 100, doi:10.1029/2019EO133113, 2019 [http]
  2. T L Thorarinsdottir and K de Bruin
    Challenges of climate change adaptation
    Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO062121, 2016 [http]
    [The full workshop report is available here]
  3. T L Thorarinsdottir, J Sillmann and R Benestad
    Studying statistical methodology in climate research
    EOS Transactions, 95(15): 129, 2014 [bib | http]

Last updated March 23, 2020 by TLT