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arXiv

**Working Papers**

- T L Thorarinsdottir and N Schuhen

Verification: assessment of calibration and accuracy

NR report nr. SAMBA/17/17, 2017 [tech] - T Erhardt, C Czado and T L Thorarinsdottir

Evaluation of time series models under non-stationarity with application to the comparison of regional climate models

arXiv:1702.00728, 2017 [arxiv] - F Krürger, S Lerch, T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting

Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output

arXiv:1608.06802, 2016 [bib | arxiv] - A Möller, T L Thorarinsdottir, A Lenkoski and T Gneiting

Spatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts

arXiv:1507.05066, 2015 [bib | arxiv] - T Gneiting and T L Thorarinsdottir

Predicting inflation: professional experts versus no-change forecasts

arXiv:1010.2318, 2010 [bib | arxiv]

**Journal Articles**

- J Sillmann, T Thorarinsdottir, N Keenlyside, N Schaller, L V Alexander, G Hegerl, S I Seneviratne, R Vautard, X Zhang and F W Zwiers

Understanding, modeling and predictig weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

*Weather and Climate Extremes*, in press, 2017 [http] - F Kobierska, K Engeland and T L Thorarinsdottir

Evaluation of design flood estimates -- a case study for Norway

*Hydrology Research*, in press, 2017 [http] - T L Thorarinsdottir, P Guttorp, M Drews, P Skougaard Kaspersen and K de Bruin

Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty

*Water Resources Research*, 53(10): 8147-8163, 2017 [tech | http] - R Benestad, J Sillmann, T L Thorarinsdottir, P Guttorp, M d S Mesquita, M R Tye, P Uotila, C Fox Maule, P Thejll, M Drews and K M Parding

New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue

*Nature Climate Change*, 7: 697-703, 2017 [http] - S Lerch, T L Thorarinsdottir, F Ravazzolo and T Gneiting

Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

*Statistical Science*, 32(1): 106-127, 2017 [bib | arxiv | http] - G H Steinbakk, T L Thorarinsdottir, T Reitan, L Schlichting, S Hølleland and K Engeland

Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation

*Water Resources Research*, 52(9): 6897-6915, 2016 [bib | tech | http] - T L Thorarinsdottir, M Scheuerer and C Heinz

Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms

*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 25(1): 105-122, 2016 [bib | arxiv | http] - E-M Didden, T L Thorarinsdottir, A Lenkoski and C Schnörr

Shape from texture using locally scaled point processes

*Image Analysis & Stereology*, 34: 161-170, 2015 [bib | arxiv | pdf] - F E Bachl, A Lenkoski, T L Thorarinsdottir and C Garbe

Bayesian motion detection for dust areosols

*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 9(3): 1298-1327, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http] - L V Hansen, T L Thorarinsdottir, E Ovcharov, T Gneiting and D Richards

Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension

*Advances in Applied Probability*, 47(2): 307-327, 2015 [bib | tech | arxiv | http] - A V Dyrrdal, A Lenkoski, T L Thorarinsdottir and F Stordal

Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme hourly precipitation in Norway

*Environmetrics*, 26(2): 89-106, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http] - K Feldmann, M Scheuerer and T L Thorarinsdottir

Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression

*Monthly Weather Review*, 143(3): 955-971, 2015 [bib | arxiv | http] - K Willett, C Williams, I Jolliffe, R Lund, L Alexander, S Brönniman, L A Vincent, S Easterbrook, V Venema, D Berry, R Warren, G Lopardo, R Auchmann, E Aguilar, M Menne, C Gallagher, Z Hausfather, T Thorarinsdottir and P W Thorne

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

*Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions*, 3: 187-200, 2014 [pdf] - T L Thorarinsdottir, T Gneiting and N Gissibl

Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models

*SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification*, 1(1): 522-534, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv] - R Schefzik, T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting

Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling

*Statistical Science*, 28(4): 616-640, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv] - S Lerch and T L Thorarinsdottir

Comparing nonhomogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

*Tellus A*, 65: 21206, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv] - T L Thorarinsdottir

Calibration diagnostics for point process models via the probability integral transform

*Stat*2(1): 150-158, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv] - A Möller, A Lenkoski, and T L Thorarinsdottir

Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas

*Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society*, 139(673): 982-991, 2013 [bib | http | arxiv] - L V Hansen and T L Thorarinsdottir

A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields

*Statistics and Probability Letters*, 83(3): 850-855, 2013 [bib | http | tech] - T L Thorarinsdottir, M Scheuerer, and K Feldmann

Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts

*Promet*, 37(3/4):43-52, 2012 (in German, invited paper) [bib | pdf] - P Friederichs and T L Thorarinsdottir

Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction

*Environmetrics*, 23(7):579-594, 2012 [bib | http | arxiv] - N Schuhen, T L Thorarinsdottir, and T Gneiting

Ensemble model output statistics for wind vectors

*Monthly Weather Review*, 140(10):3204-3219, 2012 [bib | http | arxiv] - P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir

What happened to discrete chaos, the Quenouille process, and the sharp Markov property? Some history of stochastic point processes

*International Statistical Review*, 80(2):253-268, 2012 [bib | http | tech] - T L Thorarinsdottir and M S Johnson

Probabilistic wind gust forecasting using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression

*Monthly Weather Review*, 140(3):889-897, 2012 [bib | http] - T L Thorarinsdottir and T Gneiting

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: Ensemble model output statistics by using heteroskedastic censored regression

*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society*, 173(2):371-388, 2010 [bib | http | tech] - E B V Jensen and T L Thorarinsdottir

A spatio-temporal model for functional magnetic resonance imaging data - with a view to resting state networks

*Scandinavian Journal of Statistics*, 34(3):587-614, 2007 [bib | http | tech] - M H Neumann and T L Thorarinsdottir

Asymptotic minimax estimation in nonparametric autoregression

*Mathematical Methods of Statistics*, 15(4):374-397, 2007 [bib | pdf] - T L Thorarinsdottir

Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

*Image Analysis & Stereology*, 25:129-143, 2006 [bib | pdf]

**Book Chapters**

- P Guttorp and T L Thorarinsdottir

Bayesian inference for non-Markovian point processes

In E Porcu, J M Montero, and M Schlather (Eds.),*Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events*, pp. 79-102. Lecture Notes in Statistics, Volume 207. Springer: Berlin Heidelberg, 2012 [bib | http | tech]

**Proceedings**

- T L Thorarinsdottir and E B V Jensen

Modelling resting state networks in the human brain

In R Lechnerová, I Saxl, and V Beneš, editors,*Proceedings S4G: International Conference on Stereology, Spatial Statistics and Stochastic Geometry*, pp. 137-147, 2006 [bib | pdf]

**Comments**

- A Lenkoski and T L Thorarinsdottir

Comments on: Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings by W Ehm, T Gneiting, A Jordan and F Krüger

*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B*, 78(3): 548, 2016 [http] - T L Thorarinsdottir and A Løland

Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch by X Zhu, M G Genton, Y Gu and L Xie

*TEST*, 23(1): 32-33, 2014 [bib | http]

**Meeting Reports**

- T L Thorarinsdottir and K de Bruin

Challenges of climate change adaptation

*Eos*, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO062121, 2016 [http]

[The full workshop report is available here] - T L Thorarinsdottir, J Sillmann and R Benestad

Studying statistical methodology in climate research

*EOS Transactions*, 95(15): 129, 2014 [bib | http]

Last updated November 20, 2017 by TLT